From Walras' auctioneer to continuous time double auctions: a general dynamic theory of supply and demand. (22nd December 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Donier, J; Bouchaud, J-P
• Is Part Of: Journal of statistical mechanics. (2016:Dec.)
• Publication Date: 2016-12-22
• Subjects: 16; Statistical mechanics -- Periodicals; Mechanics -- Statistical methods -- Periodicals; 530.1305
• DOI: 10.1088/1742-5468/aa4e8e
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1742-5468

Abstract

Abstract: In standard Walrasian auctions, the price of a good is defined as the point where the supply and demand curves intersect. Since both curves are generically regular, the response to small perturbations is linearly small. However, a crucial ingredient is absent of the theory, namely transactions themselves. What happens after they occur? To answer the question, we develop a dynamic theory for supply and demand based on agents with heterogeneous beliefs. When the inter-auction time is infinitely long, the Walrasian mechanism is recovered. When transactions are allowed to happen in continuous time, a peculiar property emerges: close to the price, supply and demand vanish quadratically, which we empirically confirm on the Bitcoin. This explains why price impact in financial markets is universally observed to behave as the square root of the excess volume. The consequences are important, as they imply that the very fact of clearing the market makes prices hypersensitive to small fluctuations.