A comparative analysis of substituting imported gas and coal for electricity with renewables – An input-output simulation. (December 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kamidelivand, Mitra; Cahill, Caiman; Llop, Maria; Rogan, Fionn; O'Gallachoir, Brian
• Is Part Of: Sustainable energy technologies and assessments. Volume 30(2018)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 10
• Publication Date: 2018-12
• Subjects: Input-output simulations -- Disaggregation -- Fossil-fuel substitution -- Renewable electricity -- Net socioeconomic effects; Renewable energy sources -- Periodicals; Energy development -- Technological innovations -- Periodicals; Electric power production -- Periodicals; Energy storage -- Periodicals; 333.79
• DOI: 10.1016/j.seta.2018.08.003
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2213-1388

Abstract

Highlights: Extended I-O model to compare the socio-economic impacts of electricity scenarios. Techniques for disaggregating energy sectors, GHG emissions and employment numbers. Counting the lost jobs and value-added from energy and non-energy sectors. 26 net jobs and €5m net value-added for each 1% GHG reduction of gas substitution. 73–78% lower net jobs and net value-added for the coal substitution scenarios. Abstract: For many countries, the leading energy system decarbonisation strategy is to decrease reliance on imported fossil-fuel by developing renewable electricity. This paper offers insights on the net effects of transition to low fossil-based electricity by adapting an input-output (I-O) substitution model. Firstly, it addresses a common challenge with national I-O tables, namely how to isolate figures for inhomogeneous products like 'electricity' and 'gas' aggregated into one sector for a case study of Ireland. Secondly, it applies an extended I-O model to compare the net impacts on energy and non-energy sectors when substituting imported fossil fuels for electricity with renewable resources. Within the framework of the I-O model, for each 1% GHG reduction of the gas substitution scenario, there are increases of 26.2 net jobs and €5.1 m net value-added. These impacts are lower by 73–78% for coal substitution scenarios. Without taking account of the lost jobs and value-added from the economy, the job creations and value-added of renewable electricity would be overestimated by 17%–35% and 25%–50%, respectively. As well as giving insights into the net benefits of renewable electricity, the study provides techniques that could be applied to I-O tables for other jurisdictions to enable improved analysis of energy scenarios.