Climate change accelerates local disease extinction rates in a long‐term wild host–pathogen association. (26th March 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhan, Jiasui; Ericson, Lars; Burdon, Jeremy J.
• Is Part Of: Global change biology. Volume 24:Number 8(2018)
• Page Start: 3526
• Page End: 3536
• Publication Date: 2018-03-26
• Subjects: climate change -- epidemiology -- extinction -- Filipendula ulmaria -- longitudinal study -- metapopulation -- rust -- spatial effects -- temperature -- Triphragmium ulmariae; Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Troposphere -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Biodiversity conservation -- Periodicals; Eutrophication -- Periodicals; 551.5
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14111
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1354-1013

Abstract

Abstract: Pathogens are a significant component of all plant communities. In recent years, the potential for existing and emerging pathogens of agricultural crops to cause increased yield losses as a consequence of changing climatic patterns has raised considerable concern. In contrast, the response of naturally occurring, endemic pathogens to a warming climate has received little attention. Here, we report on the impact of a signature variable of global climate change – increasing temperature – on the long‐term epidemiology of a natural host–pathogen association involving the rust pathogen Triphragmium ulmariae and its host plant Filipendula ulmaria . In a host–pathogen metapopulation involving approximately 230 host populations growing on an archipelago of islands in the Gulf of Bothnia we assessed changes in host population size and pathogen epidemiological measures over a 25‐year period. We show how the incidence of disease and its severity declines over that period and most importantly demonstrate a positive association between a long‐term trend of increasing extinction rates in individual pathogen populations of the metapopulation and increasing temperature. Our results are highly suggestive that changing climatic patterns, particularly mean monthly growing season (April‐November) temperature, are markedly influencing the epidemiology of plant disease in this host–pathogen association. Given the important role plant pathogens have in shaping the structure of communities, changes in the epidemiology of pathogens have potentially far‐reaching impacts on ecological and evolutionary processes. For these reasons, it is essential to increase understanding of pathogen epidemiology, its response to warming, and to invoke these responses in forecasts for the future. Abstract : The Skeppsvik archipelago in the northern arm of the Gulf of Bothnia, Sweden provides an ideal laboratory for studying the impact of the physical environment on the epidemiological dynamics of a metapopulation of several hundred local populations of a rust pathogen and its wild host plant. Analysis of a 25‐year long dataset found that in the second half of the study period, disease incidence across the metapopulation as a whole declined and there was a significant increase in the rate of extinction of local pathogen populations. This was associated with increasing growing season temperatures.