How will climate novelty influence ecological forecasts? Using the Quaternary to assess future reliability. (17th April 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Fitzpatrick, Matthew C.; Blois, Jessica L.; Williams, John W.; Nieto‐Lugilde, Diego; Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Lorenz, David J.
• Is Part Of: Global change biology. Volume 24:Number 8(2018)
• Page Start: 3575
• Page End: 3586
• Publication Date: 2018-04-17
• Subjects: climate change -- climate novelty -- community‐level modeling -- ecological forecasting -- no‐analog climate -- Quaternary -- species distribution modeling; Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Troposphere -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Biodiversity conservation -- Periodicals; Eutrophication -- Periodicals; 551.5
• DOI: 10.1111/gcb.14138
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1354-1013

Abstract

Abstract: Future climates are projected to be highly novel relative to recent climates. Climate novelty challenges models that correlate ecological patterns to climate variables and then use these relationships to forecast ecological responses to future climate change. Here, we quantify the magnitude and ecological significance of future climate novelty by comparing it to novel climates over the past 21, 000 years in North America. We then use relationships between model performance and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record from eastern North America to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill of ecological forecasting models as future climate novelty increases. We show that, in the high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5) and by late 21st century, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21, 000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasting models is projected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although models that incorporate co‐occurrences among species may retain somewhat higher predictive skill. In addition to quantifying future climate novelty in the context of late Quaternary climate change, this work underscores the challenges of making reliable forecasts to an increasingly novel future, while highlighting the need to assess potential avenues for improvement, such as increased reliance on geological analogs for future novel climates and improving existing models by pooling data through time and incorporating assemblage‐level information. Abstract : We use relationships between the performance of ecological forecasting models and climate novelty derived from the fossil pollen record to estimate the expected decrease in predictive skill as climate novelty increases in the future. We show that by late 21st century in North America, future climate novelty is similar to or higher than peak levels of climate novelty over the last 21, 000 years. The accuracy of ecological forecasts is expected to decline steadily over the coming decades in response to increasing climate novelty, although community‐level models may retain somewhat higher predictive skill than species distribution models.