Risks a la carte: Modelling the occurrence and intensity of wolf predation on multiple livestock species. (December 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Pimenta, Virgínia; Barroso, Inês; Boitani, Luigi; Beja, Pedro
• Is Part Of: Biological conservation. Volume 228(2018)
• Page Start: 331
• Page End: 342
• Publication Date: 2018-12
• Subjects: Human-wildlife conflict -- Large carnivores -- Livestock husbandry systems -- Predation risk -- Predation intensity -- Canis lupus; Conservation of natural resources -- Periodicals; Nature conservation -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Periodicals; Environment -- Periodicals; Environmental Pollution -- Periodicals; Electronic journals; 333.9516
• DOI: 10.1016/j.biocon.2018.11.008
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0006-3207

Abstract

Abstract: Predation on livestock is a source of human-wildlife conflicts and can undermine the conservation of large carnivores. To design effective mitigation strategies, it is important to understand the determinants of predation across livestock species, which often differ in husbandry practices, vulnerability to predators and economic value. Moreover, attention should be given to both predation occurrence and intensity, because these can have different spatial patterns and predictors. We used spatial risk modelling to quantify factors affecting wolf predation on five livestock species in Portugal. Within the 1619 parishes encompassing the entire wolf range in the country, the national wolf compensation scheme recorded 17, 670 predation events in 2009–2015, each involving one or more livestock species: sheep (31.7%), cattle (27.7%), goats (26.8%), horses (14.8%) and donkeys (3.2%). Models built with 2009–2013 data and validated with 2014–2015 data, showed a shared general pattern of predation probability on each species increasing with its own density and proximity to wolf packs. For some species there were positive relations with the density of other livestock species, and with habitat variables such as altitude, and land cover by shrubland and natural pastures. There was also a general pattern for predation intensity on each species increasing with its own density, while proximity to wolf packs had no significant effects. Predation intensity on goats, cattle and horses increased with the use of communal versus private pastures. Our results suggest that although predation may occur wherever wolves coexist with livestock species, high predation intensity is mainly restricted to particular areas where husbandry practices increase the vulnerability of animals, and this is where mitigation efforts should concentrate. Highlights: We analysed 17, 670 wolf predation events on five livestock species in Portugal. Predation probability was mainly related to wolf presence and livestock densities. Predation intensity was mainly related to livestock densities and the use of communal pastures. Patterns and determinants of predation risk varied across livestock species. Mitigation should prioritise areas where husbandry practices favour high predation intensity.