Estimating the risk of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in a large European city. Issue 1 (December 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Solimini, Angelo; Manica, Mattia; Rosà, Roberto; della Torre, Alessandra; Caputo, Beniamino
• Is Part Of: Scientific reports. Volume 8:Issue 1(2018)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 9
• Publication Date: 2018-12
• Subjects: Natural history -- Research -- Periodicals; Biology -- Research -- Periodicals; Physical sciences -- Research -- Periodicals; Earth sciences -- Research -- Periodicals; Environmental sciences -- Research -- Periodicals; 502.85
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-34664-5
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2045-2322

Abstract

Abstract Outbreaks of arbovirus infections vectored by invasiveAedes albopictus have already occurred and are predicted to become increasingly frequent in Southern Europe. We present a probabilistic model to assess risk of arbovirus outbreaks based on incident cases worldwide, on the probability of arrival of infected travelers, and on the abundance of the vector species. Our results show a significant risk of Chikungunya outbreak in Rome from mid June to October in simulations with high human biting rates (i.e. when ≥50% of the population is bitten every day). The outbreak risk is predicted to be highest for Chikungunya and null for Zika. Simulated increase of incident cases in selected endemic countries has no major impact on the outbreak risk. The model correctly estimated the number of imported cases and can be easily adapted to other urban areas whereAe .albopictus is the only potential vector present.