Reliability and reliability-based sensitivity analysis of shell and tube heat exchangers using Monte Carlo Simulation. (August 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Azarkish, Hassan; Rashki, Mohsen
• Is Part Of: Applied thermal engineering. Volume 159(2019)
• Publication Date: 2019-08
• Subjects: Shell and tube heat exchanger -- Reliability analysis -- Sensitivity analysis -- Monte Carlo Simulation; Heat engineering -- Periodicals; Heating -- Equipment and supplies -- Periodicals; Periodicals; 621.40205
• DOI: 10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2019.113842
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1359-4311

Abstract

Highlights: Reliability and sensitivity analysis of a shell and tube heat exchanger is investigated. The Monte Carlo Simulation is applied to determine the safety level. The Bell-Dellawar method is used for the shell side thermal modeling. The optimum design with the minimum cost is not the most reliable layout. Abstract: In the present work, the reliability-based sensitivity analysis of a shell and tube heat exchanger has been investigated. Four optimum heat exchanger layouts have been selected among the available layouts in literature as case studies (which optimized based on the GA, PSO, ICA and BBO algorithms). A computer code has been developed based on the Bell-Dellawar method for the hydraulic and thermal modeling of heat exchanger. The shell and tube side inlet flow temperatures, mass flow rates, fouling resistance and the reduction of inner tubes diameter due to sedimentation are considered as uncertain parameters. The Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) as the most accurate simulation method has been applied to determine the safety level of different layouts. The total cost of heat exchangers are reported 55.1 k€, 53.2 k€, 54.4 k€ and 50.6 k€ for the GA, PSO, ICA and BBO layout respectively, while the corresponding failure probabilities for these cases are 17.2%, 24.9%, 11.6% and 18.2%. The contribution of different parameters on the system failure has been determined. The contribution of shell side mass flow rate, hot and cold flow inlet temperature uncertainties on the system failure are 38–41%, 22–27% and 18–23% respectively for different layouts. Finally, appropriate ranges for variation of operating conditions are determined by using the sensitivity analysis. The present study shows the importance of reliability analysis in the real world applications which opening a new approach for heat exchanger design.