A stochastic differential equation approach to the analysis of the UK 2016 EU referendum polls. (22nd May 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Fenner, Trevor; Levene, Mark; Loizou, George
• Is Part Of: Journal of physics communications. Volume 2:Number 5(2018)
• Publication Date: 2018-05-22
• Subjects: generative model -- stochastic differential equations -- time series -- beta distribution -- referendum polls; Physics -- Periodicals; 530.05
• DOI: 10.1088/2399-6528/aac347
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2399-6528

Abstract

Abstract: Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Here we propose a generative model based on a stochastic differential equation that allows us to analyse the polls leading up to the UK 2016 EU referendum. After a preliminary analysis of the time series of poll results, we provide empirical evidence that the beta distribution, which is a natural choice when modelling proportions, fits the marginal distribution of this time series. We also provide evidence of the predictive power of the proposed model.