An overview of carbon dioxide emissions from China's ferrous metal industry: 1991-2030. (August 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Huang, Jian-Bai; Luo, Yu-Mei; Feng, Chao
• Is Part Of: Resources policy. Volume 62(2019)
• Page Start: 541
• Page End: 549
• Publication Date: 2019-08
• Subjects: Driving forces -- Ferrous metal industry -- LMDI model -- Grey prediction model -- Scenario analysis; Mines and mineral resources -- Periodicals; Ressources minérales -- Périodiques; Ressources naturelles -- Gestion -- Périodiques; Environnement -- Politique gouvernementale -- Périodiques; 333.8
• DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.10.010
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4207

Abstract

Abstract: The ferrous metal industry is one of the biggest source of industrial energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China. This paper first employs the LMDI model to explore what influenced CO2 emissions from China's ferrous metal industry from 1991 to 2016. The CO2 emission variation is decomposed into industry activity effect (Δ C G ), energy intensity effect (Δ C EI ), industry scale effect (Δ C L ), energy structure effect (Δ C ES ), industry structure effect (Δ C IS ) and emission coefficient effect (Δ C COE ). The grey prediction method and scenario analysis are then adopted to investigate the CO2 emission mitigation potential in China's ferrous metal industry during 2017–2030. The results reveal that: 1) CO2 emissions from China's ferrous metal industry grew dramatically —by 508.35%— from 213.48 Mt in 1991 to 1298.71 Mt in 2016; 2) overall, Δ C G was the leading aggravating factor andΔ C EI was key mitigating factor of emissions from the ferrous metal industry, whileΔ C L and structural factors played minor roles; 3) if the policies for the 13th five-year plan period are enforced vigorously, CO2 emissions from China's ferrous metal industry could be reduced by 724.07 Mt in 2020. Policy suggestions are proposed for emission abatement in China's ferrous metal industry. Highlights: This paper studied CO2 emissions of China's ferrous metal industry using LMDI. Grey prediction model and scenario analysis were combined for forecasting analysis. Results show that industry activity was the key factor that increases CO2 emissions. Energy intensity played a prominent role in decreasing CO2 emissions. Quite an amount of CO2 emissions can be reduced by taking appropriate measures.