Establishment and validation of a nomogram for predicting survival in patients with de novo metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma. (July 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Sun, Xue-Song; Liang, Yu-Jing; Liu, Sai-Lan; Li, Xiao-Yun; Chen, Qiu-Yan; Guo, Shan-Shan; Wen, Yue-Feng; Liu, Li-Ting; Xie, Hao-Jun; Tang, Qing-Nan; Yan, Jin-Jie; Guo, Ling; Ma, Jun; Tang, Lin-Quan; Mai, Hai-Qiang
• Is Part Of: Oral oncology. Volume 94(2019)
• Page Start: 73
• Page End: 79
• Publication Date: 2019-07
• Subjects: Nomogram -- Metastatic nasopharyngeal carcinoma -- Overall survival; Mouth -- Cancer -- Periodicals; Mouth -- Tumors -- Periodicals; Mouth Diseases -- Periodicals; Mouth Neoplasms -- Periodicals; Bouche -- Cancer -- Périodiques; Bouche -- Tumeurs -- Périodiques; Tumeurs -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 616.9943105
• DOI: 10.1016/j.oraloncology.2019.05.015
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1368-8375

Abstract

Highlights: 502 de novo NPC patients were involved in the study. Five independent prognostic factors were entered into the nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.724 in primary cohort. A calibration curve was used to compare predicted and observed survival. All results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Abstract: Background and purpose: No nomogram has been established for de novo metastatic NPC patients previously. Thus, we retrospectively involved 502 de novo NPC patients to develop a practical clinical tool by combining prognostic biomarkers to estimate individual risk. Methods: The nomogram was based on a primary cohort involving 353 patients from 2007 to 2013; all independent prognostic factors were integrated for inclusion in the model. The predictive accuracy of the model was evaluated by concordance index (C-index). A calibration curve was used to compare predicted and observed survival. We confirmed the results using a validation cohort study on 149 patients enrolled from 2014 to 2016. Results: Five independent prognostic factors derived from multivariable analysis were entered into the nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.724. The calibration curves for probability of 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) showed satisfactory agreement between predicted survival and actual observed survival. The Kaplan–Meier survival curves showed a significant difference in survival among different risk groups according to the total score. All results were confirmed in the validation cohort. Conclusion: We established a convenient nomogram that provides individual prediction of OS for patients with de novo metastatic NPC.