Structural decomposition of decadal climate prediction errors: A Bayesian approach. Issue 1 (December 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zanchettin, Davide; Gaetan, Carlo; Arisido, Maeregu Woldeyes; Modali, Kameswarrao; Toniazzo, Thomas; Keenlyside, Noel; Rubino, Angelo
• Is Part Of: Scientific reports. Volume 7:Issue 1(2017)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 11
• Publication Date: 2017-12
• Subjects: Natural history -- Research -- Periodicals; Biology -- Research -- Periodicals; Physical sciences -- Research -- Periodicals; Earth sciences -- Research -- Periodicals; Environmental sciences -- Research -- Periodicals; 502.85
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-13144-2
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2045-2322

Abstract

Abstract Decadal climate predictions use initialized coupled model simulations that are typically affected by a drift toward a biased climatology determined by systematic model errors. Model drifts thus reflect a fundamental source of uncertainty in decadal climate predictions. However, their analysis has so far relied on ad-hoc assessments of empirical and subjective character. Here, we define the climate model drift as a dynamical process rather than a descriptive diagnostic. A unified statistical Bayesian framework is proposed where a state-space model is used to decompose systematic decadal climate prediction errors into an initial drift, seasonally varying climatological biases and additional effects of co-varying climate processes. An application to tropical and south Atlantic sea-surface temperatures illustrates how the method allows to evaluate and elucidate dynamic interdependencies between drift, biases, hindcast residuals and background climate. Our approach thus offers a methodology for objective, quantitative and explanatory error estimation in climate predictions.