Application of a Hybrid Method Combining Grey Model and Back Propagation Artificial Neural Networks to Forecast Hepatitis B in China. (26th February 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gan, Ruijing; Chen, Xiaojun; Yan, Yu; Huang, Daizheng
• Other Names: Liao Chung-Min Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: Computational and mathematical methods in medicine. Volume 2015(2015)
• Publication Date: 2015-02-26
• Subjects: Medicine -- Computer simulation -- Periodicals; Medicine -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; 610.11
• DOI: 10.1155/2015/328273
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1748-670X

Abstract

Abstract : Accurate incidence forecasting of infectious disease provides potentially valuable insights in its own right. It is critical for early prevention and may contribute to health services management and syndrome surveillance. This study investigates the use of a hybrid algorithm combining grey model (GM) and back propagation artificial neural networks (BP-ANN) to forecast hepatitis B in China based on the yearly numbers of hepatitis B and to evaluate the method's feasibility. The results showed that the proposal method has advantages over GM (1, 1) and GM (2, 1) in all the evaluation indexes.