Determining the likelihood of pauses and surges in global warming. Issue 14 (16th July 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Schurer, Andrew P.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.; Obrochta, Stephen P.
• Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters. Volume 42:Issue 14(2015:Jul.)
• Page Start: 5974
• Page End: 5982
• Publication Date: 2015-07-16
• Subjects: natural climate variability; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Periodicals; Lunar geology -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064458
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-8276

Abstract

Abstract: The recent warming "hiatus" is subject to intense interest, with proposed causes including natural forcing and internal variability. Here we derive samples of all natural and internal variability from observations and a recent proxy reconstruction to investigate the likelihood that these two sources of variability could produce a hiatus or rapid warming in surface temperature. The likelihood is found to be consistent with that calculated previously for models and exhibits a similar spatial pattern, with an Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation‐like structure, although with more signal in the Atlantic than in model patterns. The number and length of events increases if natural forcing is also considered, particularly in the models. From the reconstruction it can be seen that large eruptions, such as Mount Tambora in 1815, or clusters of eruptions, may result in a hiatus of over 20 years, a finding supported by model results. Key Points: The recent hiatus is not unusual in the context of the last 230 years Models agree with observations regarding likelihood and pattern of events Likelihood increases if natural forcings (e.g., volcanic) are also considered