Demystifying the Mystery Room. (20th February 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Wenmackers, Sylvia
• Is Part Of: Thought. Volume 8:Number 2(2019:Jun.)
• Page Start: 86
• Page End: 95
• Publication Date: 2019-02-20
• Subjects: Bayesianism -- de se beliefs -- observer selection -- probability -- sample space; Philosophy -- Periodicals; Logic -- Periodicals; Knowledge, Theory of -- Periodicals; 105
• DOI: 10.1002/tht3.408
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2161-2234

Abstract

Abstract: The Mystery Room problem is a close variant of the Mystery Bag scenario (due to Titelbaum). It is argued here that dealing with this problem requires no revision of the Bayesian formalism, since there exists a solution to this problem in which indexicals or demonstratives play no essential role. The solution does require labels, which are internal to the probabilistic model. While there needs to be a connection between at least one label and one indexical or demonstrative, that connection is external to the probabilistic model that is used to determine the relevant conditional probability; hence, it does not complicate the update procedure.