Can a population-declining Japan sustain growth?. Issue 1 (1st October 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hayashi, Toshihiko
• Is Part Of: Japanese political economy. Volume 42:Issue 1/4(2016)
• Page Start: 89
• Page End: 105
• Publication Date: 2016-10-01
• Subjects: Japan -- Politics and government -- Economic aspects -- Periodicals; Japan -- Economic conditions -- Periodicals; 330.952
• DOI: 10.1080/2329194X.2018.1461569
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2329-194X

Abstract

Abstract: Modern Japan's population and GDP underwent three stages of transition: the prewar stage (1878–1939), postwar stage (1950–2008), and postmodern stage (after 2009). By means of a simple ARIMA model, I predict Japan's GDP will decline considerably if Japan stays on the postwar paradigm toward 2100. However, I will show that if Japan can restore the historical trend of 1878–2015, its GDP will grow at around 2% per annum toward 2100. To achieve such a transition, the nation will require dramatically reduced population elasticity, and a faster rate of X-efficiency increase, including technological and institutional transformations.