Fractional-Order Accumulative Linear Time-Varying Parameters Discrete Grey Forecasting Model. (2nd May 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Gao, Pumei; Zhan, Jun; Liu, Jiefang
• Other Names: Balsera Ines Tejado Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: Mathematical problems in engineering. Volume 2019(2019)
• Publication Date: 2019-05-02
• Subjects: Engineering mathematics -- Periodicals; 510.2462
• DOI: 10.1155/2019/6343298
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1024-123X

Abstract

Abstract : Traditional discrete grey forecasting model can effectively predict the development trend of the stabilizing system. However, when the system has disturbance information, the prediction result will have larger error, and there will appear significant downward trend in the stability of the model. In the presence of disturbance information, this paper presents a fractional-order linear time-varying parameters discrete grey forecasting model to deal with the system that contains both linear trend and nonlinear trend. The modeling process of the model and calculation method are given. The perturbation bounds of the new model are analyzed by using the least-squares method of perturbation theory. And it is compared with that of the first-order linear time-varying parameters discrete grey forecasting model. Finally, two real cases are given to verify the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed method.