Drilling and Blasting to Learn Scenario Construction: Experimenting with Causal Layered Analysis as a Disruption of Scenario Work. (June 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Minkkinen, Matti; Heinonen, Sirkka; Parkkinen, Marjukka
• Other Names: Yeoman Ian guest-editor.; Curry Andrew guest-editor.
• Is Part Of: World future review. Volume 11:Number 2(2019)
• Page Start: 110
• Page End: 121
• Publication Date: 2019-06
• Subjects: causal layered analysis -- scenarios -- hybrid methods -- experimentation -- teaching; Forecasting -- Periodicals; Forecasting -- Study and teaching -- Periodicals; Social prediction -- Periodicals; Social indicators -- Periodicals; 303.49
• DOI: 10.1177/1946756718774940
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1946-7567

Abstract

Scenario thinking is one of the key elements of futures studies, and therefore, "Scenario Thinking" is one of the first compulsory courses in the Master's Degree Programme in Futures Studies at the University of Turku. Scenario methods are continuously evolving, and our educational practices must reflect recent developments while giving a clear outline of the big picture. Furthermore, increasing interest is being taken in hybrid methods, and such hybridity can also be introduced to teaching scenario thinking. This article discusses an experiment of using causal layered analysis (CLA) to complement and deepen scenarios made by student groups for a Finnish company during an introductory course on scenario thinking. During a first-year master's degree course, a two-hour CLA session was conducted, and student groups were instructed to include the results into their scenario reports. From a methodological point of view, we discuss using CLA as a disruption in the middle of the scenario process to increase reflexivity. From a pedagogical point of view, we discuss how a relatively complex method combination (CLA and scenarios) can be made accessible to first-year master's students conducting their first scenario study. As material, we use our own firsthand experiences from the scenario course and the CLA session as well as a subsequent survey with students. The intention of the paper is to quickly distribute educational practices for assessment by the futures education community and, thus, contribute to improving the state of futures studies and foresight education.