Diverging forest land use dynamics induced by armed conflict across the tropics. (May 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Landholm, David M.; Pradhan, Prajal; Kropp, Juergen P.
• Is Part Of: Global environmental change. Volume 56(2019)
• Page Start: 86
• Page End: 94
• Publication Date: 2019-05
• Subjects: Armed conflict -- Deforestation -- Internally displaced persons -- Migration -- Land use change drivers -- Colombian conflict; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; Human ecology -- Periodicals; Nature -- Effect of human beings on -- Periodicals; Environment -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Politique gouvernementale -- Périodiques; Écologie humaine -- Périodiques; Homme -- Influence sur la nature -- Périodiques; Environmental policy; Human ecology; Nature -- Effect of human beings on; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 333.7
• DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.03.006
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0959-3780

Abstract

Highlights: The first global assessment of the impact of armed conflict on forests across the tropics suggests that conflict exerted an overall negative impact on tropical forest dynamics. Non-unidirectional effects of armed conflict on land use are found for Colombia at a municipality level and are likely to exist also in other regions. Albeit finding some positive effects, the Colombian conflict predominantly exerted a negative impact over its forests. IDPs is a suitable variable for representing different degrees of conflict intensity. Abstract: Armed conflicts trigger region-specific mechanisms that affect land use change. Deforestation is presented as one of the most common negative environmental impacts resulting from armed conflicts, with relevant consequences in terms of greenhouse gas emissions and loss of ecosystem services. However, the impact of armed conflict on forests is complex and may simultaneously lead to positive and negative environmental outcomes, i.e. forest regrowth and deforestation, in different regions even within a country. We investigate the impact that armed conflict exerted over forest dynamics at different spatial scales in Colombia and for the global tropics during the period 1992–2015. Through the analysis of its internally displaced population (departures) our results suggest that, albeit finding forest regrowth in some municipalities, the Colombian conflict predominantly exerted a negative impact on its forests. A further examination of georeferenced fighting locations in Colombia and across the globe shows that conflict areas were 8 and 4 times more likely to undergo deforestation, respectively, in the following years in relation to average deforestation rates. This study represents a municipality level, long-term spatial analysis of the diverging effects the Colombian conflict exerted over its forest dynamics over two distinct periods of increasing and decreasing conflict intensity. Moreover, it presents the first quantified estimate of conflict's negative impact on forest ecosystems across the globe. The relationship between armed conflict and land use change is of global relevance given the recent increase of armed conflicts across the world and the importance of a possible exacerbation of armed conflicts and migration as climate change impacts increase.