A New Empirical Model for Short-Term Forecasting of the Broadband Penetration: A Short Research in Greece. (3rd November 2011)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Konstantinos, Salpasaranis; Vasilios, Stylianakis
• Other Names: Rabelo Luis Carlos Academic Editor.
• Is Part Of: Modelling and simulation in engineering. Volume 2011(2011)
• Publication Date: 2011-11-03
• Subjects: Engineering -- Simulation methods -- Periodicals; Engineering -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals; 620.004
• DOI: 10.1155/2011/798960
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1687-5591

Abstract

Abstract : The objective of this paper is to present a short research about the overall broadband penetration in Greece. In this research, a new empirical deterministic model is proposed for the short-term forecast of the cumulative broadband adoption. The fitting performance of the model is compared with some widely used diffusion models for the cumulative adoption of new telecommunication products, namely, Logistic, Gompertz, Flexible Logistic (FLOG), Box-Cox, Richards, and Bass models. The fitting process is done with broadband penetration official data for Greece. In conclusion, comparing these models with the empirical model, it could be argued that the latter yields well enough statistics indicators for fitting and forecasting performance. It also stresses the need for further research and performance analysis of the model in other more mature broadband markets.