Does Economic Activity Slow in Election Years?. Issue 4 (October 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Brown, Michael; Pugliese, Michael
• Is Part Of: Business economics. Volume 51:Issue 4(2015)
• Page Start: 260
• Page End: 265
• Publication Date: 2016-10
• Subjects: presidential elections -- business cycles -- GDP growth -- macroeconomics -- macroeconomy; Managerial economics -- United States -- Periodicals; Economics -- United States -- Periodicals; Business -- Periodicals; United States -- Economic conditions -- Periodicals; 338.50973
• DOI: 10.1057/s11369-016-0016-y
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0007-666X

Abstract

Academic researchers and commentators have drawn attention to the potential link between heightened uncertainty experienced in a presidential election year and slower real economic activity. Our analysis looks at some of the key economic variables typically used by the NBER to date business cycles and compares the performance of these economic indicators between presidential election and non-election years since 1960. Our results suggest that the general argument that uncertainty during presidential election years results in slower economic activity does not hold water. In fact, based on our analysis, we find that several measures of economic activity are actually stronger during presidential election years.