Scenario analysis and disaster preparedness for port and maritime logistics risk management. (February 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Kwesi-Buor, John; Menachof, David A.; Talas, Risto
• Is Part Of: Accident analysis and prevention. Volume 123(2019)
• Page Start: 433
• Page End: 447
• Publication Date: 2019-02
• Subjects: Disaster preparedness -- Environment instability -- Resilient -- Logistics -- System dynamics -- Maritime logistics -- Port management -- Risk management; Accidents -- Prevention -- Periodicals; Accident Prevention -- Periodicals; Accidents -- Prévention -- Périodiques; 363.106
• DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.07.013
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0001-4575

Abstract

Highlights: Ports and ship owners have become increasingly exposed (vulnerable) to logistics risks, disruptions, and uncertainties. System Dynamics modelling show effect on the impacts of policy intervention on shippers' preparedness to mitigate risks. System Dynamics modelling shows the effect on the ability to recover from disruptions along the maritime logistics network. A bi-directional relationship between regulation and shippers' behaviour towards Disaster Preparedness in logistics networks is revealed. The level of Disaster Preparedness is highly contingent on technology change, attitude to risk prevention, port activities, and port environment. Abstract: System Dynamics (SD) modelling is used to investigate the impacts of policy interventions on industry actors' preparedness to mitigate risks and to recover from disruptions along the maritime logistics and supply chain network. The model suggests a bi-directional relation between regulation and industry actors' behaviour towards Disaster Preparedness (DP) in maritime logistics networks. The model also showed that the level of DP is highly contingent on forecast accuracy, technology change, attitude to risk prevention, port activities, and port environment.