Determinants of energy futures—a scenario discovery method applied to cost and carbon emission futures for South American electricity infrastructure. (15th March 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Moksnes, Nandi; Rozenberg, Julie; Broad, Oliver; Taliotis, Constantinos; Howells, Mark; Rogner, Holger
• Is Part Of: Environmental research communications. Volume 1:Number 2(2019)
• Publication Date: 2019-03-15
• Subjects: energy modelling -- scenario discovery -- South America -- OSeMOSYS; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; 333.705
• DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/ab06de
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2515-7620

Abstract

Abstract: Energy policy and investment are commonly informed by a small number of scenarios, modelled with proprietary models and closed data-sets. It limits what levels of insight that can be derived from it. This paper overcomes these critical concerns by exploring a large number of scenarios with an open-data and open-source model to address regional mitigation policy. Focusing on South America, we translate an ensemble of long-term electricity supply scenarios into policy insights and use post-processing methods to present a systematic mapping of solution outputs to model inputs. We find demand levels, the cost of capital and the level of CO2 -limits to be significant determinants of total investment cost. Low-carbon pathways are associated with low demand and low cost of capital. When cost of capital increases a shift away from wind and hydropower to natural gas and solar PV is seen. We further show that appropriate concessionary finance together with energy efficiency measures are critical—at a continental level—to unlock economic, low-carbon investment.