Vulnerability: From the conceptual to the operational using a dynamical system perspective. (November 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Rougé, Charles; Mathias, Jean-Denis; Deffuant, Guillaume
• Is Part Of: Environmental modelling & software. Volume 73(2015:Nov.)
• Page Start: 218
• Page End: 230
• Publication Date: 2015-11
• Subjects: Vulnerability -- Indicators -- Harm -- Robustness-vulnerability trade-offs -- Adaptation -- Lake eutrophication; Environmental monitoring -- Computer programs -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Computer simulation -- Periodicals; Digital computer simulation -- Periodicals; Computer software -- Periodicals; Environmental Monitoring -- Periodicals; Computer Simulation -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Surveillance -- Logiciels -- Périodiques; Écologie -- Simulation, Méthodes de -- Périodiques; Simulation par ordinateur -- Périodiques; Logiciels -- Périodiques; Computer software; Digital computer simulation; Ecology -- Computer simulation; Environmental monitoring -- Computer programs; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 363.70015118
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.07.018
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1364-8152

Abstract

Abstract: This work proposes to address a lack of conceptual consensus surrounding the concept of vulnerability, by fostering a minimal definition as a measure of potential future harm, and by basing it on a stochastic controlled dynamical system framework. Harm is defined as a normative judgment on a trajectory. Considering all the possible trajectories from an initial state leads to the definition of vulnerability indicators as statistics derived from the probability distribution of harm values. This framework 1) promotes a dynamic view of vulnerability by eliciting its temporal dimension and 2) clarifies the descriptive and normative aspects of a system's representation. As illustrated by a simple model of lake eutrophication, this work makes vulnerability a precise yet flexible concept which fosters discussion on trade-offs between vulnerability sources, and also on adaptation. Links with economics, with control theory, and with algorithmic methods such as dynamic programming are highlighted. Highlights: Vulnerability is an increasingly oft-used concept, yet remains ill-defined. A formal mathematical framework is proposed to lift ambiguity. Framework integrates system dynamics, stakeholders' decisions, and uncertainties. Framework helps design varied indicators; fosters exploration of relevant policies. Framework is a useful reference even when a system's equations are unknown.