A waste-to-energy project: A complex approach towards the assessment of investment risks. (5th October 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ferdan, Tomáš; Šomplák, Radovan; Zavíralová, Lenka; Pavlas, Martin; Frýba, Lukáš
• Is Part Of: Applied thermal engineering. Volume 89(2015:Oct.)
• Page Start: 1127
• Page End: 1136
• Publication Date: 2015-10-05
• Subjects: Waste-to-energy -- Risk analysis -- NERUDA -- Waste management -- Waste availability; Heat engineering -- Periodicals; Heating -- Equipment and supplies -- Periodicals; Periodicals; 621.40205
• DOI: 10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2015.04.005
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1359-4311

Abstract

Abstract: This paper presents a complex methodology towards investment risk quantification in a waste-to-energy (WTE) project. It focuses on risks related to the supply of waste. A novel approach is proposed, where waste availability is assessed based on a complex simulation of future competition in the waste market. The methodology takes advantage of complex calculation performed by the system NERUDA. NERUDA is a logistic-based optimization tool, which allocates processing capacities and proposes waste flows between producers and processors within modelled region. One original feature of the methodology is how the assessment is formulated, whereby the optimum collection areas are compared with a project's capacity. The new term waste availability factor is defined and used in the assessment. The practical implications of such an approach are demonstrated through a case study. The results of this work support decision-making processes involved in new WTE projects. Since one of the major risks is a lock of waste availability, its evaluation represents an integral part of feasibility studies for WTE projects. Highlights: Some regions of the EU will have to invest into thermal treatment in the coming years. Feasibility studies with risk analysis are major parts of the pre-project phase. New methodology for risk analysis based on a competition modelling proposed. Waste availability is one of the most important risk factor.