Predicting Wolbachia invasion dynamics in Aedes aegypti populations using models of density-dependent demographic traits. Issue 1 (December 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hancock, Penelope; White, Vanessa; Ritchie, Scott; Hoffmann, Ary; Godfray, H.
• Is Part Of: BMC biology. Volume 14:Issue 1(2016)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 12
• Publication Date: 2016-12
• Subjects: Wolbachia -- Zika -- Dengue -- Mosquito -- Aedes aegypti -- Density-dependence -- Bayesian statistical model -- Invasion -- Vector-borne disease -- Fitness; Biology -- Periodicals; Medical sciences -- Periodicals; Biomedical Research -- Periodicals; 570.5
• DOI: 10.1186/s12915-016-0319-5
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1741-7007

Abstract

Abstract Background Arbovirus transmission by the mosquitoAedes aegypti can be reduced by the introduction and establishment of the endosymbiotic bacteriaWolbachia in wild populations of the vector.Wolbachia spreads by increasing the fitness of its hosts relative to uninfected mosquitoes. However, mosquito fitness is also strongly affected by population size through density-dependent competition for limited food resources. We do not understand how this natural variation in fitness affects symbiont spread, which limits our ability to design successful control strategies. Results We develop a mathematical model to predictA. aegypti–Wolbachia dynamics that incorporates larval density-dependent variation in important fitness components of infected and uninfected mosquitoes. Our model explains detailed features of the mosquito–Wolbachia dynamics observed in two independent experimentalA. aegypti populations, allowing the combined effects on dynamics of multiple density-dependent fitness components to be characterized. We apply our model to investigateWolbachia field release dynamics, and show how invasion outcomes can depend strongly on the severity of density-dependent competition at the release site. Specifically, the ratio of released relative to wild mosquitoes required to attain a target infection frequency (at the end of a release program) can vary by nearly an order of magnitude. The time taken forWolbachia to become established following releases can differ by over 2 years. These effects depend on the relative fitness of field and insectary-reared mosquitoes. Conclusions Models ofWolbachia invasion incorporating density-dependent demographic variation in the host population explain observed dynamics in experimentalA. aegypti populations. These models predict strong effects of density-dependence onWolbachia dynamics in field populations, and can assist in the effective use ofWolbachia to control the transmission of arboviruses such as dengue, chikungunya and zika.