Designing an integrated urban growth prediction model: a scenario-based approach for preserving scenic landscapes. Issue 12 (2nd December 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Saeidi, Sepideh; Mirkarimi, Seyed Hamed; Mohammadzadeh, Marjan; Salmanmahiny, Abdolrassoul; Arrowsmith, Colin
• Is Part Of: Geocarto international. Volume 33:Issue 12(2018)
• Page Start: 1381
• Page End: 1397
• Publication Date: 2018-12-02
• Subjects: Urban growth scenarios -- landscape aesthetic suitability -- SLEUTH -- Iran; Remote sensing -- Periodicals; Geographic information systems -- Periodicals; Geology -- Periodicals; Cartography -- Periodicals; 621.3678
• DOI: 10.1080/10106049.2017.1353647
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1010-6049

Abstract

Abstract: This study demonstrates the integration of landscape aesthetic quality and probable urban growth patterns in urban landscape modelling. This was performed using SLEUTH as a scenario-based urban growth model in Gorgan City of Iran. Future urbanization was predicted under developing three different scenarios including historical, managed and aesthetically sound urban growth up to the year 2030. Multi-Layer Perceptron neural network model was conducted for mapping the aesthetic suitability of the study area. The aesthetic suitability layer was used in the third scenario of SLEUTH model as the excluded layer to protect the scenic patches in future. The results showed that by correct implementation of urban growth policies, 323 ha in the second scenario and 650 ha in the third scenario would be saved. This integrated model would help the planners for a better management of urban landscapes as a Spatial Decision Support System.