Quantifying changes in water use and groundwater availability in a megacity using novel integrated systems modeling. Issue 16 (31st August 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hyndman, D. W.; Xu, T.; Deines, J. M.; Cao, G.; Nagelkirk, R.; Viña, A.; McConnell, W.; Basso, B.; Kendall, A. D.; Li, S.; Luo, L.; Lupi, F.; Ma, D.; Winkler, J. A.; Yang, W.; Zheng, C.; Liu, J.
• Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters. Volume 44:Issue 16(2017)
• Page Start: 8359
• Page End: 8368
• Publication Date: 2017-08-31
• Subjects: Systems approach -- Groundwater -- Sustainability -- Crop model -- Recharge -- Land use; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Periodicals; Lunar geology -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1002/2017GL074429
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-8276

Abstract

Abstract: Water sustainability in megacities is a growing challenge with far‐reaching effects. Addressing sustainability requires an integrated, multidisciplinary approach able to capture interactions among hydrology, population growth, and socioeconomic factors and to reflect changes due to climate variability and land use. We developed a new systems modeling framework to quantify the influence of changes in land use, crop growth, and urbanization on groundwater storage for Beijing, China. This framework was then used to understand and quantify causes of observed decreases in groundwater storage from 1993 to 2006, revealing that the expansion of Beijing's urban areas at the expense of croplands has enhanced recharge while reducing water lost to evapotranspiration, partially ameliorating groundwater declines. The results demonstrate the efficacy of such a systems approach to quantify the impacts of changes in climate and land use on water sustainability for megacities, while providing a quantitative framework to improve mitigation and adaptation strategies that can help address future water challenges. Key Points: We quantify Beijing's water balance through time using newly coupled hydrology, biology, and land use models We use a crop growth model to simulate irrigation demand and recharge rate on agricultural land We demonstrate that land use change in Beijing enhances groundwater recharge, thus reducing the rate of groundwater level decline