A Decision Framework for Managing Risk to Airports from Terrorist Attack. Issue 2 (11th August 2014)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Shafieezadeh, Abdollah; Cha, Eun J.; Ellingwood, Bruce R.
• Is Part Of: Risk analysis. Volume 35:Issue 2(2015)
• Page Start: 292
• Page End: 306
• Publication Date: 2014-08-11
• Subjects: Civil infrastructure security -- decision analysis -- probabilistic risk analysis -- risk management -- terrorism; Technology -- Risk assessment -- Periodicals; 658.403
• DOI: 10.1111/risa.12266
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0272-4332

Abstract

Abstract : This article presents an asset‐level security risk management framework to assist stakeholders of critical assets with allocating limited budgets for enhancing their safety and security against terrorist attack. The proposed framework models the security system of an asset, considers various threat scenarios, and models the sequential decision framework of attackers during the attack. Its novel contributions are the introduction of the notion of partial neutralization of attackers by defenders, estimation of total loss from successful, partially successful, and unsuccessful actions of attackers at various stages of an attack, and inclusion of the effects of these losses on the choices made by terrorists at various stages of the attack. The application of the proposed method is demonstrated in an example dealing with security risk management of a U.S. commercial airport, in which a set of plausible threat scenarios and risk mitigation options are considered. It is found that a combination of providing blast‐resistant cargo containers and a video surveillance system on the airport perimeter fence is the best option based on minimum expected life‐cycle cost considering a 10‐year service period.