A geostatistical analysis of the association between armed conflicts and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Africa, 1997–2010. (December 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Sedda, Luigi; Qi, Qiuyin; Tatem, Andrew
• Is Part Of: Malaria journal. Volume 14:Number 1(2015)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 11
• Publication Date: 2015-12
• Subjects: Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate 2–10 -- Conflict density -- Violence -- Variogram -- Malaria control; Malaria -- Periodicals; 616.9362
• DOI: 10.1186/s12936-015-1024-5
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1475-2875

Abstract

Abstract Background The absence of conflict in a country has been cited as a crucial factor affecting the operational feasibility of achieving malaria control and elimination, yet mixed evidence exists on the influence that conflicts have had on malaria transmission. Over the past two decades, Africa has seen substantial numbers of armed conflicts of varying length and scale, creating conditions that can disrupt control efforts and impact malaria transmission. However, very few studies have quantitatively assessed the associations between conflicts and malaria transmission, particularly in a consistent way across multiple countries. Methods In this analysis an explicit geostatistical, autoregressive, mixed model is employed to quantitatively assess the association between conflicts and variations inPlasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence across a 13-year period in sub-Saharan Africa. Results Analyses of geolocated, malaria prevalence survey variations against armed conflict data in general showed a wide, but short-lived impact of conflict events geographically. The number of countries with decreasedP. falciparum parasite prevalence (17) is larger than the number of countries with increased transmission (12), and notably, some of the countries with the highest transmission pre-conflict were still found with lower transmission post-conflict. For four countries, there were no significant changes in parasite prevalence. Finally, distance from conflicts, duration of conflicts, violence of conflict, and number of conflicts were significant components in the model explaining the changes inP. falciparum parasite rate. Conclusions The results suggest that the maintenance of intervention coverage and provision of healthcare in conflict situations to protect vulnerable populations can maintain gains in even the most difficult of circumstances, and that conflict does not represent a substantial barrier to elimination goals.