Challenges of the epidemiological and economic burdens associated with hypertension in middle income countries: evidence from Mexico. (December 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Arredondo, Armando; Cuadra, Silvia; Duarte, Maria
• Is Part Of: BMC public health. Volume 15:Number 1(2015)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 7
• Publication Date: 2015-12
• Subjects: Epidemiological changes -- Financial consequences -- Hypertension -- Health system -- Users; Public health -- Periodicals; 362.105
• DOI: 10.1186/s12889-015-2430-x
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1471-2458

Abstract

Abstract Background In order to identify the challenges resulting from hypertension in a middle income country, this study has developed probabilistic models to determine the epidemiological and economic burden of hypertension in Mexico. Methods Considering a population base of 654, 701 reported cases of adults with hypertension, we conducted a longitudinal analyses in order to identify the challenges of epidemiological changes and health care costs for hypertension in the Mexican health system. The cost-evaluation method used was based on the instrumentation technique. To estimate the epidemiological changes for 2015–2017, probabilistic models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique. Results Regarding changes in expected cases for 2015 vs. 2017, an increase of 12 % is expected (p < 0.001). Comparing the economic impact in 2015 versus 2017 (p < 0.001), there is a 23 % increase in financial requirements. The total amount for hypertension in 2016 (US dollars) will be $6306, 685, 320 Of these, $ 2990, 109, 035 will be as direct costs and $ 3316, 576, 285 as indirect costs. Conclusions If the risk factors and care models remain as they are currently in the health system, the financial consequences will have a major impact on the out-of-pocket users, following in order of importance, on social security providers and on public assistance providers.