Estimating Choice Models to Quantify the Effect of Herding on the Decision to Evacuate: Application of a Serious Gaming Experimental Setup. Issue 1 (December 2018)
- Record Type:
- Journal Article
- Title:
- Estimating Choice Models to Quantify the Effect of Herding on the Decision to Evacuate: Application of a Serious Gaming Experimental Setup. Issue 1 (December 2018)
- Main Title:
- Estimating Choice Models to Quantify the Effect of Herding on the Decision to Evacuate: Application of a Serious Gaming Experimental Setup
- Authors:
- Van den Berg, Mignon
van Nes, Rob
Hoogendoorn, Serge - Abstract:
- Insight into factors influencing the choices people make in case of an evacuation from a natural disaster can help governments and emergency management personnel to manage people in case of such a situation. One of the aspects that influences the choices that people make in such a situation is herding. Since herding has not been quantified, this paper focuses on quantifying the effect of herding on the decision to evacuate by using an experimental setup that is based on the serious game Everscape . Around 400 people participated in 13 experiments with this setup. Choice models were estimated with the data from these experiments by including observable characteristics of herding as an attribute into the utility function. It is concluded that an important step is made in quantifying herding. It is shown that the more people someone sees leaving, the more inclined this person is to leave. Seeing people leave has more impact than seeing people stay. When people have no information from official sources, they tend to use other people as a source of information. In case of a disaster, this might result in following people who make the situation even more dangerous (for themselves and possibly for others as well). The information provided by official sources is therefore essential in managing people in the best possible way in case of a natural disaster.
- Is Part Of:
- Transportation research record. Volume 2672:Issue 1(2018)
- Journal:
- Transportation research record
- Issue:
- Volume 2672:Issue 1(2018)
- Issue Display:
- Volume 2672, Issue 1 (2018)
- Year:
- 2018
- Volume:
- 2672
- Issue:
- 1
- Issue Sort Value:
- 2018-2672-0001-0000
- Page Start:
- 161
- Page End:
- 170
- Publication Date:
- 2018-12
- Subjects:
- Transportation -- Periodicals
Roads
Transport -- Périodiques
Routes -- Périodiques
Routes -- Conception et construction -- Périodiques
Roads
Transportation
388.05 - Journal URLs:
- http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/1259379.html ↗
http://trb.org/news/blurb_detail.asp?id=1676 ↗
http://trb.metapress.com/content/0361-1981/ ↗
https://journals.sagepub.com/home/trr ↗
http://www.uk.sagepub.com/home.nav ↗
http://bibpurl.oclc.org/web/31620 ↗ - DOI:
- 10.1177/0361198118784404 ↗
- Languages:
- English
- ISSNs:
- 0361-1981
- Deposit Type:
- Legaldeposit
- View Content:
- Available online (eLD content is only available in our Reading Rooms) ↗
- Physical Locations:
- British Library DSC - BLDSS-3PM
British Library HMNTS - ELD Digital store - Ingest File:
- 9779.xml