Prediction of major depressive disorder onset in college students. Issue 4 (6th December 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ebert, David D.; Buntrock, Claudia; Mortier, Philippe; Auerbach, Randy; Weisel, Kiona K.; Kessler, Ronald C.; Cuijpers, Pim; Green, Jennifer G.; Kiekens, Glenn; Nock, Matthew K.; Demyttenaere, Koen; Bruffaerts, Ronny
• Is Part Of: Depression and anxiety. Volume 36:Issue 4(2019)
• Page Start: 294
• Page End: 304
• Publication Date: 2018-12-06
• Subjects: depression -- epidemiology -- health services -- mood disorders -- suicide/self‐harm; Anxiety -- Periodicals; Depression, Mental -- Periodicals; Depression -- Periodicals; Anxiety -- Periodicals; Anxiety Disorders -- Periodicals; 616.8527005
• DOI: 10.1002/da.22867
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1091-4269

Abstract

Abstract : Background: Major depressive disorder (MDD) in college students is associated with substantial burden. Aims: To assess 1‐year incidence of MDD among incoming freshmen and predictors of MDD‐incidence in a representative sample of students. Method: Prospective cohort study of first‐year college students (baseline: n = 2, 519, 1‐year follow‐up: n = 958) Results: The incidence of MDD within the first year of college was 6.9% (SE = 0.8). The most important individual‐level predictors of onset were prior suicide plans and/or attempts (OR = 9.5). The strongest population‐level baseline predictors were history of childhood–adolescent trauma, stressful experience in the past 12 months, parental psychopathology, and other 12‐month mental disorder. Multivariate cross‐validated prediction (cross‐validated AUC = 0.73) suggest that 36.1% of incident MDD cases in a replication sample would occur among the 10% of students at highest predicted risk (24.5% predicted incidence in this highest‐risk subgroup). Conclusions: Screening at college entrance is a promising strategy to identify students at risk of MDD onset, which may improve the development and deployment of targeted preventive interventions.