A retrospective and predictive study of fertility rates in China from 2003 to 2018. Issue 3 (March 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Wang, Mengqiao
• Is Part Of: Heliyon. Volume 5:Issue 3(2019)
• Publication Date: 2019-03
• Subjects: Information science -- Anthropology; Research -- Periodicals; Medical sciences -- Periodicals; Natural history -- Periodicals; Social sciences -- Periodicals; Earth sciences -- Periodicals; Physical sciences -- Periodicals; 507.2
• DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2019.e01460
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2405-8440

Abstract

Abstract: A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted on age-specific and birth-order-wise crude fertility rates and total fertility rates based on national sample surveys by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Unexpectedly, such fertility datasets were officially deleted since 2016. A time-series predictive study was conducted based on the Holt's Exponential Smoothing models to restore the deleted fertility data for 2016 and beyond, allowing a comprehensive analysis of fertility rates in China from 2003 to 2018. In all, population structure was aging fast, fertility rates continued to decrease to a substantially low level, and three Northeastern provinces displayed notable socioeconomic issues associated with low-fertility trap. Adjustment is essential for China to timely remove its still-present birth limit and devise social policies to revert the fertility downtrend.