Using a conceptual system for weak signals classification to detect threats and opportunities from web. (March 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Garcia-Nunes, Pedro Ivo; da Silva, Ana Estela Antunes
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 107(2019)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 16
• Publication Date: 2019-03
• Subjects: Competitive intelligence -- Knowledge representation -- Conceptual system -- Strategic discontinuities -- Weak signal; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2018.11.004
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Highlights: A method for detecting strategic discontinuities from Web through weak signals classification is proposed. The method relies on the development of a conceptual system that considers Porter's competitive forces and PESTLE analysis. The conceptual system is used to classify the signals as threats or opportunities. Abstract: The concept of weak signal (WS) was proposed by Igor Ansoff in the 1970s to describe early information about an emerging phenomenon in organizational environments. Surprising events can be avoided by methods for monitoring and analyzing these signals, continually. These methods enable the detection process of potential threats and opportunities that may arise from those surprising events. While this strategic process is very useful, conventional methods for WS monitoring and analysis do not avoid cognitive and motivational problems that can harm the competitive intelligence capacity of organizations. The solution of these problems can be related to methods that allow conducting the detection process collectively, quickly and with the least effort, through the eventual support of automatic tools. Ontologies, for example, are computational artifacts that represent organizational knowledge whose features can be used in a conceptual system for classification of WS. The purpose of this work is to present such system, which also uses Web crawling, competitive forces and PESTLE analysis in the detection of threats and opportunities. A case example also is discussed showing that this approach can be used as a viable alternative to support surveillance of strategic discontinuities that permeate the organizational environment.