CMIP-5 models project photovoltaics are a no-regrets investment in Europe irrespective of climate change. (15th March 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Müller, Johannes; Folini, Doris; Wild, Martin; Pfenninger, Stefan
• Is Part Of: Energy. Volume 171(2019)
• Page Start: 135
• Page End: 148
• Publication Date: 2019-03-15
• Subjects: Climate change impact -- Solar photovoltaic energy -- Energy scenarios -- Europe; Power resources -- Periodicals; Power (Mechanics) -- Periodicals; Energy consumption -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.139
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0360-5442

Abstract

Abstract: Using projections of surface solar radiation and temperature from 23 CMIP5 global climate models for two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 & 8.5) we quantify the average change in PV electricity production expected in the years 2060–2080 compared to the present (2007–2027). We upsample daily radiation data to hourly resolution with a sinusoidal diurnal cycle model and split it into direct and diffuse radiation with the semi-empirical BRL model as input to a PV electricity generation model. Locally, changes in PV potential from −6% to +3% in annual and −25% to +10% in monthly means are shown. These projections are combined with a PV deployment scenario and show countries benefitting from increased PV yields include Spain, France, Italy and Germany. We also calculate uncertainties when calculating PV yield with input data at daily or lower resolution, demonstrating that our method to derive synthetic hourly profiles should be of use for other researchers using input data with low temporal resolution. We conclude that PV is an attractive and no-regrets investment in Europe irrespective of future climate change, and can continue to play a key role in energy system decarbonisation. Highlights: We simulate future PV potential based on daily CMIP5 radiation and temperature data. PV output varies locally by −6% to +3% on annual and −25% to +10% on monthly scales. Southern Europe sees increased PV output, while northern Europe sees a decrease. Synthetic hourly irradiance based on daily data is necessary for accurate results. PV is a no-regrets investment in Europe irrespective of climate change.