Tropical storms and mortality under climate change. (May 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Pugatch, Todd
• Is Part Of: World development. Volume 117(2019)
• Page Start: 172
• Page End: 182
• Publication Date: 2019-05
• Subjects: Tropical storms -- Tropical cyclones -- Hurricanes -- Natural disasters -- Human mortality -- Human health -- Climate change -- Developing countries -- Latin America -- Mexico; Economic history -- 1990- -- Periodicals; Economic assistance -- Developing countries -- Periodicals; 330.9
• DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.01.009
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0305-750X

Abstract

Highlights: I quantify the effect of tropical storms on mortality in Mexico using meteorological data. I estimate that storms killed 1598 people in Mexico from 1990 to 2011. I project that storm deaths would increase by as much as 52% under climate change. These projections hold population and income at contemporaneous levels. Abstract: Extreme weather induced by climate change can have major consequences for human health. In this study, I quantify the effect of tropical storm frequency and severity on mortality using objective meteorological data and the universe of vital statistics records from a large developing country, Mexico. Using a measure of storm exposure that accounts for both windspeed dispersion and population density along the storm track, I project changes in past storm-related mortality under various scenarios of continued climate change, while holding population and income at contemporaneous levels. I find that storm-related deaths would have risen under most climate change scenarios considered, with increases of as much as 52% or declines of as much as 10%, depending on the interplay between increasing storm severity and decreased frequency.