Causality from long‐lived radiative forcings to the climate trend. Issue 1 (25th July 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Estrada, Francisco; Perron, Pierre
• Other Names: Gimeno Luis guestEditor.
• Is Part Of: Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences. Volume 1436:Issue 1(2019)
• Page Start: 195
• Page End: 205
• Publication Date: 2018-07-25
• Subjects: climate change -- attribution -- causality -- econometric methods -- time series; Medical sciences -- Periodicals; Medicine -- Periodicals; Science -- Periodicals; 610
• DOI: 10.1111/nyas.13923
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0077-8923

Abstract

Abstract: In our study, we present a purely statistical observations‐based model‐free analysis that provides evidence about Granger causality (GC) from long‐lived radiative forcings (LLRFs) to the climate trend (CT). This relies on having locally ordered breaks in the slopes of the trend functions of LLRF and the CT, with the break for LLRF occurring before that of the CT and with the slope changes being of the same sign. The empirical evidence indicates that these conditions are satisfied empirically using standard global surface temperature series and an aggregate measure of LLRF (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons). We also discuss why the presence of broken trends can lead one to conclude in favor of GC when using standard methods even if the noise function in LLRF is negligible. Abstract : In our study, we present a purely statistical observations‐based model‐free analysis that provides evidence about Granger causality (GC) from long‐lived radiative forcings (LLRFs) to the climate trend. We also discuss why the presence of broken trends can lead one to conclude in favor of GC when using standard methods even if the noise function in LLRF is negligible.