Modeling and analysis of cascading failures in projects: A complex network approach. (January 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Guo, Ning; Guo, Peng; Dong, Haiyong; Zhao, Jing; Han, Qingye
• Is Part Of: Computers & industrial engineering. Volume 127(2019)
• Page Start: 1
• Page End: 7
• Publication Date: 2019-01
• Subjects: Project -- Cascading failures -- Complex networks -- Risk management; Engineering -- Data processing -- Periodicals; Industrial engineering -- Periodicals; 620.00285
• DOI: 10.1016/j.cie.2018.11.051
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0360-8352

Abstract

Highlights: This study draws attention to the cascading failures in project. Complex network theory is applied to develop cascading failures model to mimic the catastrophe spreading process in project. This study can be applied to evaluate the impact of cascading failures on the project. This study can be applied to identify the possibility of large cascades. This study can give guidance to managers in developing preventive measures to reduce cascade failure risk. Abstract: Due to the complex integration of the tasks in a project, the failure of a single task can trigger extremely large-scale failures and destroy a considerable part of the overall project. To investigate cascading failures in projects, in this paper, the project is first abstracted as a weighted directed network composed of tasks and task interactions, after which a cascade model that takes account of the project's self-protection mechanism is developed to examine a failure propagation process originates from a single task failure. The model is then applied to examine cascading failures in a project under three types of single task failures with varying parameters. The experiment results demonstrate that the method is very effective in predicting cascading failures, evaluating the impact of cascading failures on the project, and identifying large cascades. The insights gained from the simulation results have implications for managers in the implementation of protective measures to mitigate cascading failure risk and avert project catastrophes.