A model for the directional evolution of severe ocean storms. Issue 1 (23rd October 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Tendijck, S.; Ross, E.; Randell, D.; Jonathan, P.
• Is Part Of: Environmetrics. Volume 30:Issue 1(2019)
• Page Start: n/a
• Page End: n/a
• Publication Date: 2018-10-23
• Subjects: extreme -- Markov extremal model -- nonstationary -- significant wave height -- storm trajectory; Environmental sciences -- Statistical methods -- Periodicals; 550.72
• DOI: 10.1002/env.2541
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1180-4009

Abstract

Abstract: Motivated by recent work on Markov extremal models, we develop a nonstationary extension and use it to characterize the time evolution of extreme sea state significant wave height ( H S ) and storm direction in the vicinity of the storm peak sea state. The approach first requires transformation of H S from a physical to a standard Laplace scale achieved using a nonstationary directional marginal extreme value model. The evolution of Laplace‐scale H S is subsequently characterized using a Markov extremal model and that of the rate of change of storm direction described by an autoregressive model, the evolution variance of which is H S ‐dependent. Simulations on the physical scale under the estimated model give realistic realizations of storm trajectories consistent with historical data for storm trajectories at a northern North Sea location.