Modelling the impact of liner shipping network perturbations on container cargo routing: Southeast Asia to Europe application. (February 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Achurra-Gonzalez, Pablo E.; Novati, Matteo; Foulser-Piggott, Roxane; Graham, Daniel J.; Bowman, Gary; Bell, Michael G.H.; Angeloudis, Panagiotis
• Is Part Of: Accident analysis and prevention. Volume 123(2019)
• Page Start: 399
• Page End: 410
• Publication Date: 2019-02
• Subjects: Liner shipping -- Network perturbations -- Port disruption accidents -- Container assignment model; Accidents -- Prevention -- Periodicals; Accident Prevention -- Periodicals; Accidents -- Prévention -- Périodiques; 363.106
• DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2016.04.030
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0001-4575

Abstract

Highlights: A cost-based container assignment model is applied to scenarios of liner shipping network perturbations. The virtual network approach allows to skip disrupted ports. We extend previous formulations to allow feasible solutions when network routing capacity is reduced below transport demand. Two port disruptions scenarios are developed reviewing related accidents risks and impacts to operations in Southeast Asia to Europe trade lane. Numerical results suggest that intra-regional connectivity is more susceptible to disruptions in the scenarios evaluated. Abstract: Understanding how container routing stands to be impacted by different scenarios of liner shipping network perturbations such as natural disasters or new major infrastructure developments is of key importance for decision-making in the liner shipping industry. The variety of actors and processes within modern supply chains and the complexity of their relationships have previously led to the development of simulation-based models, whose application has been largely compromised by their dependency on extensive and often confidential sets of data. This study proposes the application of optimisation techniques less dependent on complex data sets in order to develop a quantitative framework to assess the impacts of disruptive events on liner shipping networks. We provide a categorization of liner network perturbations, differentiating between systemic and external and formulate a container assignment model that minimises routing costs extending previous implementations to allow feasible solutions when routing capacity is reduced below transport demand. We develop a base case network for the Southeast Asia to Europe liner shipping trade and review of accidents related to port disruptions for two scenarios of seismic and political conflict hazards. Numerical results identify alternative routing paths and costs in the aftermath of port disruptions scenarios and suggest higher vulnerability of intra-regional connectivity.