Estimating mitigation potential and cost for air pollutants of China's thermal power generation: A GAINS-China model-based spatial analysis. (20th February 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Pu, Yang; Song, Junnian; Dong, Liang; Yang, Wei; Wang, Shuo; Wang, Xian'en
• Is Part Of: Journal of cleaner production. Volume 211(2019)
• Page Start: 749
• Page End: 764
• Publication Date: 2019-02-20
• Subjects: Air pollutants -- Thermal power generation -- Mitigation potential -- Spatial analysis -- GAINS-China; Factory and trade waste -- Management -- Periodicals; Manufactures -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Déchets industriels -- Gestion -- Périodiques; Usines -- Aspect de l'environnement -- Périodiques; 628.5
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.11.213
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0959-6526

Abstract

Abstract: As the most important form of power generation accounting for around 75% in Chinese power generation structure, thermal power generation is emitting multiple air pollutants, leading to serious environmental impairments and human health issues. An investigation of trends in regional features of pollutant emission and control cost is critical to better decision makings. By integrating GAINS-China model and spatial autocorrelation analysis, this study estimates and analyzes air pollutant (SO2 and NOx ) emission, mitigation potential and control cost of thermal power generation in China's 31 regions from 2015 to 2030. The Business-as-Usual Scenario and Policy-Reinforced Scenario are set for comparison to quantify the effects of increasingly reinforced national emission control policies. The results show that up to 2030, with reinforced control policies and implementation of more abatement technologies, obvious mitigation effects of SO2 and NOx emission can be recognized. The regions with huge mitigation potential and higher total control cost are mainly located in the eastern coastal regions with higher gross domestic product and more power generation (such as Zhejiang, Shandong, and Jiangsu), as well as in the regions with abundant energy reserve and tremendous power supplied to other regions (such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi). The spatial autocorrelation analysis verifies that there is significant regional disparity, as well as agglomeration effects of pollutant emission of thermal power generation. The results presented by this study are expected to provide policy makers with reference when formulating emission control policies and regional goals for thermal power generation. Highlights: GAINS-China model is used to estimate regional pollutant emission of thermal power generation. Two scenarios are set for comparison to characterize regional mitigation potential. Regional total and unit mitigation cost of pollutant emission are calculated. Driving factors leading to regional disparity of emission and cost are analyzed. Spatial autocorrelation analysis is conducted to investigate agglomeration effect of emission.