Cautious Optimism and Incremental Goals Toward Stabilizing Atmospheric CO2. Issue 12 (20th December 2018) - Ballantyne, A. P.
Abstract: Fossil fuel emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere appear to have leveled off in recent years; however, atmospheric CO2 concentrations continue to rise. Our simple analysis shows that peaks in the growth rates of human population and fossil fuel emissions have been observed, but the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 has reached record levels and shows no indication of peaking. Before atmospheric CO2 concentrations can be stabilized at safe levels, a peak in the CO2 growth rate must be achieved. Plain Language Summary: Stabilizing the concentration of CO2 in Earth's atmosphere is one of the most daunting challenges to humanity. Despite recent evidence indicating that fossil fuel emissions of CO2 have stabilized at approximately 35 billion tons a year, atmospheric growth rates of CO2 have reached record levels of nearly 3 parts per million per year. Before we can ultimately stabilize the concentration of atmospheric CO2, we must first stabilize its growth rate. Key Points: Emissions of fossil fuels to the atmosphere appear to have leveled off at 36 billion tons of CO2 per year The atmospheric growth rate of CO2 has reached record levels of ~3 ppm/year In order to ultimately stabilize the concentration of atmospheric CO2, it is first necessary to stabilize the atmospheric CO2 growth rate