Call Center Arrivals: When to Jointly Forecast Multiple Streams?. Issue 1 (4th June 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ye, Han; Luedtke, James; Shen, Haipeng
• Is Part Of: Production and operations management. Volume 28:Issue 1(2019)
• Page Start: 27
• Page End: 42
• Publication Date: 2018-06-04
• Subjects: arrival process -- lag dependence -- vector time series -- workforce management; Production management -- Periodicals; 658.505
• DOI: 10.1111/poms.12888
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1059-1478

Abstract

Abstract : We consider call centers that have multiple (potentially inter‐dependent) demand arrival streams. Workforce management of such labor intensive service systems starts with forecasting future arrival demand. We investigate the question of whether and when to jointly forecast future arrivals of the multiple streams. We first develop a general statistical model to simultaneously forecast multi‐stream arrival rates. The model takes into account three types of inter‐stream dependence. We then show with analytical and simulation studies how the forecasting benefits of the multi‐stream forecasting model vary by the type, direction, and strength of inter‐stream dependence. In particular, we find that it is beneficial to simultaneously forecast multi‐stream arrivals (instead of separately forecasting each stream), when there exists inter‐stream lag dependence among daily arrival rates. Empirical studies, using two real call center datasets further demonstrate our findings, and provide operational insights into how one chooses forecasting models for multi‐stream arrivals.