How to model a complex national energy system? Developing an integrated energy systems framework for long-term energy and emissions analysis. (2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Davis, Matthew; Ahiduzzaman, Md.; Kumar, Amit
• Is Part Of: International journal of global warming. Volume 17:Number 1(2019)
• Page Start: 23
• Page End: 58
• Publication Date: 2019
• Subjects: energy-environmental systems model -- GHG emissions -- Canada -- energy outlook -- emission outlook -- energy system -- bottom-up -- integrated -- accounting-based -- energy analysis -- emission analysis -- energy policy -- energy management -- long-range energy alternatives planning -- LEAP; Global warming -- Periodicals; Global warming -- Statistics -- Periodicals; Global warming -- Economic aspects -- Periodicals; Climatic changes -- Periodicals; Climatic changes -- Economic aspects -- Periodicals; Climatic changes -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; 363.73874
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1758-2083

Abstract

In order to manage an energy system responsibly and maintain its benefits indefinitely, science-based decision-making should be valued during energy policy making and energy management. This research presents a framework for developing a scientific tool with the long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) system for evaluating energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation pathways for a national energy system. The framework developed is applied to create a bottom-up (technology-explicit), data-intensive (over 2 million data points), multi-regional (13 integrated regions) energy model of Canada, one of the world's most energy and emission intensive nations. Model accuracy was validated with historical data showing emissions varied 0-1.2% proving the framework can provide accurate assessments. The model was used to generate baseline Canadian energy-emissions outlooks to 2050 that do not currently exist in literature. The developed framework provides robust capabilities that are helpful for energy efficiency analysis, energy planning, and GHG mitigation assessment.