Reasoned Decision Making Without Math? Adaptability and Robustness in Response to Surprise. Issue 10 (1st May 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Smithson, Michael; Ben‐Haim, Yakov
• Is Part Of: Risk analysis. Volume 35:Issue 10(2015)
• Page Start: 1911
• Page End: 1918
• Publication Date: 2015-05-01
• Subjects: Adaptability -- ignorance -- info‐gap -- robustness -- surprise -- uncertainty; Technology -- Risk assessment -- Periodicals; 658.403
• DOI: 10.1111/risa.12397
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0272-4332

Abstract

Abstract : Many real‐world planning and decision problems are far too uncertain, too variable, and too complicated to support realistic mathematical models. Nonetheless, we explain the usefulness, in these situations, of qualitative insights from mathematical decision theory. We demonstrate the integration of info‐gap robustness in decision problems in which surprise and ignorance are predominant and where personal and collective psychological factors are critical. We present practical guidelines for employing adaptable‐choice strategies as a proxy for robustness against uncertainty. These guidelines include being prepared for more surprises than we intuitively expect, retaining sufficiently many options to avoid premature closure and conflicts among preferences, and prioritizing outcomes that are steerable, whose consequences are observable, and that do not entail sunk costs, resource depletion, or high transition costs. We illustrate these concepts and guidelines with the example of the medical management of the 2003 SARS outbreak in Vietnam.