Prospects for narrowing bounds on Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity. Issue 11 (18th November 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Stevens, Bjorn; Sherwood, Steven C.; Bony, Sandrine; Webb, Mark J.
• Is Part Of: Earth's future. Volume 4:Issue 11(2016)
• Page Start: 512
• Page End: 522
• Publication Date: 2016-11-18
• Subjects: Climate sensitivity -- Climate change; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; Environmental sciences; Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000376
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2328-4277

Abstract

Abstract: The concept of Earth's Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is reviewed. A particular problem in quantifying plausible bounds for ECS has been how to account for all of the diverse lines of relevant scientific evidence. It is argued that developing and refuting physical storylines (hypotheses) for values outside any proposed range has the potential to better constrain these bounds and to help articulate the science needed to narrow the range further. A careful reassessment of all important lines of evidence supporting these storylines, their limitations, and the assumptions required to combine them is therefore required urgently. Key Points: Current understanding of bounds on Earth's Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) The refutation of physical storylines (or hypotheses) can more effectively bound the ECS range Reasons to be optimistic as to our ability to reduce uncertainty in our assessment of ECS in the future