Choosing small sets of policy-relevant scenarios by combining vulnerability and diversity approaches. (October 2016)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Carlsen, Henrik; Lempert, Robert; Wikman-Svahn, Per; Schweizer, Vanessa
• Is Part Of: Environmental modelling & software. Volume 84(2016:Oct.)
• Page Start: 155
• Page End: 164
• Publication Date: 2016-10
• Subjects: Scenario diversity analysis -- Vulnerability based scenario analysis -- Climate change -- Scenario discovery -- Robust decision making; Environmental monitoring -- Computer programs -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Computer simulation -- Periodicals; Digital computer simulation -- Periodicals; Computer software -- Periodicals; Environmental Monitoring -- Periodicals; Computer Simulation -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Surveillance -- Logiciels -- Périodiques; Écologie -- Simulation, Méthodes de -- Périodiques; Simulation par ordinateur -- Périodiques; Logiciels -- Périodiques; Computer software; Digital computer simulation; Ecology -- Computer simulation; Environmental monitoring -- Computer programs; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 363.70015118
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.06.011
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1364-8152

Abstract

Abstract: Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. Highlights: Describes an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of scenarios. A combination of criteria related to vulnerability and diversity is used. The method is applied to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure.