Global dynamic analysis of a H7N9 avian-human influenza model in an outbreak region. (21st February 2015)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Chen, Yongxue; Wen, Yongxian
• Is Part Of: Journal of theoretical biology. Volume 367(2015)
• Page Start: 180
• Page End: 188
• Publication Date: 2015-02-21
• Subjects: Mutant avian influenza virus -- Equilibria -- Stability -- Persistence -- Simulation; Biology -- Periodicals; Biological Science Disciplines -- Periodicals; Biology -- Periodicals; Biologie -- Périodiques; Theoretische biologie; Biology; Periodicals; 571.05
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.12.002
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0022-5193

Abstract

Abstract: In 2013 in China a new type of avian influenza virus, H7N9, began to infect humans and had aroused severe fatality in the infected humans. We know that the spread is from poultry to humans, and the H7N9 avian influenza is low pathogenic in the poultry world but highly pathogenic in the human world, but the transmission mechanism is unclear. Since it has no signs of human-to-human transmission and outbreaks are isolated in some cities in China, in order to investigate the transmission mechanism of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza, an eco-epidemiological model in an outbreak region is proposed and analyzed dynamically. Researches and reports show that gene mutation makes the new virus be capable of infecting humans, therefore the mutation factor is taken into account in the model. The global dynamic analysis is conducted, different thresholds are identified, persistence and global qualitative behaviors are obtained. The impact of H7N9 avian influenza on the people population is concerned. Finally, the numerical simulations are carried out to support the theoretical analysis and to investigate the disease control measures. It seems that we may take people׳s hygiene and prevention awareness factor as a significant policy to achieve the aim of both the disease control and the economic returns. Abstract : Highlights: A SEM-SIR eco-epidemiological model in an outbreak region is proposed and analyzed. The low pathogenic in poultry but highly pathogenic in human of avian influenza A H7N9 virus and the required mutation factor are taken into account in the human-avian model. Global dynamic properties of stability and persistence are implemented. Disease control measure and the production protection are incorporated into consideration. Raising people׳s hygiene and prevention awareness is the more significant measure.