The efficacy of league formats in ranking teams. (December 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lasek, Jan; Gagolewski, Marek
• Other Names: Groll Andreas guest-editor.; Manisera Marica guest-editor.; Schauberger Gunther guest-editor.; Zuccolotto Paola guest-editor.
• Is Part Of: Statistical modelling. Volume 18:Number 5/6(2018)
• Page Start: 411
• Page End: 435
• Publication Date: 2018-12
• Subjects: association football -- league formats -- rankings -- rating systems -- simulation -- tournament design; Linear models (Statistics) -- Periodicals; Mathematical models -- Periodicals; Modèles linéaires (Statistique) -- Périodiques; Modèles mathématiques -- Périodiques; Modèle statistique; Modèle linéaire; Modélisation statistique; Périodique électronique (Descripteur de forme); Ressource Internet (Descripteur de forme); 519.5011
• DOI: 10.1177/1471082X18798426
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1471-082X

Abstract

The efficacy of different league formats in ranking teams according to their true latent strength is analysed. To this end, a new approach for estimating attacking and defensive strengths based on the Poisson regression for modelling match outcomes is proposed. Various performance metrics are estimated reflecting the agreement between latent teams' strength parameters and their final rank in the league table. The tournament designs studied here are used in the majority of European top-tier association football competitions. Based on numerical experiments, it turns out that a two-stage league format comprising of the three round-robin tournament together with an extra single round-robin is the most efficacious setting. In particular, it is the most accurate in selecting the best team as the winner of the league. Its efficacy can be enhanced by setting the number of points allocated for a win to two (instead of three that is currently in effect in association football).