Climate, wildfire, and erosion ensemble foretells more sediment in western USA watersheds. Issue 17 (7th September 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Sankey, Joel B.; Kreitler, Jason; Hawbaker, Todd J.; McVay, Jason L.; Miller, Mary Ellen; Mueller, Erich R.; Vaillant, Nicole M.; Lowe, Scott E.; Sankey, Temuulen T.
• Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters. Volume 44:Issue 17(2017)
• Page Start: 8884
• Page End: 8892
• Publication Date: 2017-09-07
• Subjects: fire -- climate change -- soil erosion -- sediment yield -- watershed -- forecast; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Periodicals; Lunar geology -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073979
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-8276

Abstract

Abstract: The area burned annually by wildfires is expected to increase worldwide due to climate change. Burned areas increase soil erosion rates within watersheds, which can increase sedimentation in downstream rivers and reservoirs. However, which watersheds will be impacted by future wildfires is largely unknown. Using an ensemble of climate, fire, and erosion models, we show that postfire sedimentation is projected to increase for nearly nine tenths of watersheds by >10% and for more than one third of watersheds by >100% by the 2041 to 2050 decade in the western USA. The projected increases are statistically significant for more than eight tenths of the watersheds. In the western USA, many human communities rely on water from rivers and reservoirs that originates in watersheds where sedimentation is projected to increase. Increased sedimentation could negatively impact water supply and quality for some communities, in addition to affecting stream channel stability and aquatic ecosystems. Key Points: Model ensemble synthesis projects 10% increase in postfire sedimentation for nearly nine tenths of western USA watersheds by mid‐21st century Postfire sedimentation projected to increase by >100% for more than one third of watersheds by mid‐21st century Many watersheds with projected increases in fire and sedimentation are important surface water supply for downstream human communities